Crypto market update: 12-18 october.
BTC volatility is correlated with price peaks and sharp declines as it is entirely logical. It is very significant that this indicator is at its lowest level in the last 16 months.Source: cointelegraph
Volatility is a historical-based metric that indicates market fears, usually when this one is low, as it’s the case of BTC, it’s an indication that significant price movements are coming.
The BTC's implied volatility is currently at 57%, 16 months ago it was as low as the 52% with a peak of 143% 3 months ago. With this data the average is at 76%.
Since the appearance of cryptoderivatives, this indicator has other reference indexes such as BTC futures and option prices, because if investors perceive an increased risk they tend to turn to these cryptoderivatives to buy risk protection.
Thus we have that a low BTC volatility slows down the returns on cryptoderivatives, and conversely it promotes them, making their interests and premiums more attractive, as it is happening at this stage of the market.
Since July this year, the BTC has been fluctuating in a very narrow range of 15%, between $10,200 and $11,800. We are observing very moderate volatility with some very short peaks.
According to historical analyses, the BTC price usually moves sharply after a few months of stability in which its price moves in a narrow band.
The BTC price trend is having large price peaks (volatility) after more or less long periods of stability. The calm before the storm
In this context, some analysts do not rule out the possibility that the BTC price will reach 20,000 dólar in 3 months when it breaks out of its current range. It currently trades at $11,413, after rising last week, stabilizing during this week. It is therefore expected that it will soon break out of the USD 12,000 resistance easily.
Respecting the Ether's performance in the market
The downward trend remains very strong and could bring her price down even further, although the bulls will again try to push her price above the resistance line which is currently at 395 USD, with a slight recovery despite the falls experienced since the end of the summer.
It should be noted that there are still many inactive ETH wallets since last year, which suggests that there are many investors who are in hold mode and do not want to move their Ethers.
We can say that the Etherium market is still in a period of correction and adjustment until a solution can be found to the great problem of the transaction fees called "gas", and the disorderly growth of the DeFi which needs greater regulation to control its great risk of loss.
Despite all of this, the ETH network's profit/loss indicator shows that in the short term is + 8% above the initial investment, still far from a red zone of losses.
Despite the corrections for the ETH value and the persistence of the bearish trend, a new bullish sentiment is emerging according to the report by Santiment which is commented by Cointelegraph. Santiment is a financial information platform that has its own token (SAN) regulated by the Swiss Financial Authority
As for the market behaviour of other outstanding altcoins, we have the following:
Waves and Stellar (XLM) lead the week's most notable increases, followed by Monero (XMR), Decred (DCR) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
1ST) Waves: with a significant increase of 24.45%, possibly due to the fact that its token exchange platform introduced a Staking function by which you can have passive income with deposits made with stablecoins or new stablecoins included and tokenised assets to expand the supply of its ecosystem. The value of this token reached USD 3 on 16 October.Source: criptonoticia
2nd) Stellar (XLM): USDC (Dollar Coin) is already integrated into the Stellar network according to a Twitter announcement on October 15th. Thus the stellar network becomes one of the three block network to carry out the emission of this stablecoin, since the aim is for USDC not to be so dependent on the ETH network. The price of Stellar managed to rise by 6% since the aforementioned announcement, increasing its capitalization to USD 1,695 million.
3rd) Monero (XMR): the programmed “hard fork” (see article on forks) of Monero network is now initiated to reduce the transaction size and the verification time. Since the announcement of such an event, this altcoin has done nothing but grow even moderately and this time and for 5 consecutive weeks is again in this top 5 with a price growth of more than 2%. The price ranged from $115 to $133 and is currently at $119.86 per unit. Its current capitalisation amounts is $2,123 million.
4th) Decred (DCR): with an increase of 2.4% this week that may be due a training workshop on the Decred blockchain and API and the tests for DCR/BTC exchanges through its decentralised platform. Its price reached a peak of 13.29 and currently stands at $12.70, with a capitalisation of $153 million.
5th) Bitcoin Cash (BCH): the top 5 is closed with Bitcoin Cash with a slight increase, possibly due to the announcement of a new "hard fork" between BCH and Bitcoin ABC due to discrepancies in the application of new rules related to Coinbase. When there is a fork, there is normally an increase interest in the crypto of the original blockchain as the new tokens would be distributed among the holders of the that crypto.
In general there have been falls in most of the cryptocurrencies (80% of them showed value decreases) and a few did experienced moderate increases with the exception of the great increase of Waves at 25%. The BTC increased very slightly and the ETH declined moderately as well.